Friday, July 24th 2020

Intel 7nm CPUs Delayed by a Year, Alder Lake in 2H-2021, Other Commentary from Intel Management

Intel's silicon fabrication woes refuse to torment the company's product roadmaps, with the company disclosing in its Q2-2020 financial results release that the company's first CPUs built on the 7 nanometer silicon fabrication node are delayed by a year due to a further 6-month delay from prior expectations. The company will focus on getting its 10 nm node up to scale in the meantime.

The company mentioned that the 10 nm "Tiger Lake" mobile processor and "Ice Lake-SP" enterprise processor remains on-track for 2020. The company's 12th Generation Core "Alder Lake-S" desktop processors won't arrive before the second half of 2021. In the meantime, Intel will launch its 11th Gen Core "Rocket Lake" processor on the 14 nm node, but with increased IPC from the new "Cypress Cove" CPU cores. Also in 2H-2021, the company will launch its "Sapphire Rapids" enterprise processors that come with next-gen connectivity and updated CPU cores.
Intel 7 nanometer delay
It's interesting to note that Intel was specific about "CPU" when talking about 7 nm, meaning that Intel's foundry woes only affect its CPU product stack, and not a word was mentioned in the release about the company's discrete GPU and scalar compute processors that are being prototyped and validated. This is probably the biggest hint we'll ever get from Intel that the company's dGPUs are being designed for third-party foundries (such as Samsung or TSMC), and that the Xe dGPU product roadmap is disconnected from that of Intel's fabs.
Intel is accelerating its transition to 10 nm products this year with increasing volumes and strong demand for an expanding line up. This includes a growing portfolio of 10 nm-based Intel Core processors with "Tiger Lake" launching soon, and the first 10 nm-based server CPU "Ice Lake," which remains planned for the end of this year. In the second half of 2021, Intel expects to deliver a new line of client CPU's (code-named "Alder Lake"), which will include its first 10 nm-based desktop CPU, and a new 10 nm-based server CPU (code-named "Sapphire Rapids"). The company's 7 nm-based CPU product timing is shifting approximately six months relative to prior expectations. The primary driver is the yield of Intel's 7 nm process, which based on recent data, is now trending approximately twelve months behind the company's internal target.
Intel's post results call also revealed a handful interesting tentative dates. For starters, "Tiger Lake" is shipping in "a matter of weeks," indicating an imminent launch ahead of the "Back to School" shopping season. Next up, the company's high-performance scalar compute processor, codenamed "Ponte Vecchio" remains slated for 2021-22, and given that it's reportedly being designed for 7 nm, we have our next big hint confirmation that these dGPUs will be built on third-party 7 nm fabs. Intel did mention that the Foveros packaging technology could be further developed over the years, and its upcoming discrete GPUs could combine dies (tiles) from multiple sources, which could include its own fabs.

Given the delays in Intel's 7 nm foundry node, the first Intel client-segment processors based on the node won't arrive before late-2022 or 2023, which means refinements of the current 10 nm silicon fabrication node should support Intel's client-segment product stack for the foreseeable future. The first enterprise 7 nm processors will arrive by the first half of 2023. Intel also mentioned that they expect to see "one full node improvement" from a refined 10 nanometer process, which isn't surprising, given how much experience they have improving their 14 nanometer process.
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175 Comments on Intel 7nm CPUs Delayed by a Year, Alder Lake in 2H-2021, Other Commentary from Intel Management

#76
windwhirl
Dave65
Ok got to ask a question because I forgot..
Was AMD's 7nm developed by AMD or TSMC, and if TSMC does do 7nm for Intel will it be an Intel design or TSMC? I should know this but my mind rings up blank!
As I understand it, TSMC's 7nm is TSMC's own development. AMD and, if it ever happens, Intel, will adjust their designs to fit the specs and quirks of TSMC's nodes. However, I imagine that they agree to share some information so that TSMC can keep polishing their nodes and so that whoever uses that node also gets to understand how to best utilize it to maximize yields and the silicon performance.
Posted on Reply
#77
ThrashZone
Hi,
Intel excuses are well past lame think they just enjoy milking the monkey just adding more +++++++++++
Posted on Reply
#78
Xuper
wow Intel nasdaq dropped from 60 to 50.so much for profit.
Posted on Reply
#79
Dave65
windwhirl
As I understand it, TSMC's 7nm is TSMC's own development. AMD and, if it ever happens, Intel, will adjust their designs to fit the specs and quirks of TSMC's nodes. However, I imagine that they agree to share some information so that TSMC can keep polishing their nodes and so that whoever uses that node also gets to understand how to best utilize it to maximize yields and the silicon performance.
That makes sense I guess. I guess if it was just TSMC then both Intel and AMD would have identical chips?
Confusing to say the least..
Posted on Reply
#80
trparky
I like what one person said in another forum and I think this explains what's happening at Intel...
"Lifecycle of a corporation" which is both a book and theory explains that this almost always happens eventually: creative founder(s) leave either voluntarily or not, leadership slowly becomes accountant-minded people that don’t have the natural talent and intuition to create the future, and the company slowly dies...

Unless they start the cycle over again by bringing in an innovation-minded leader.
We can apply this to many companies including Oracle, Boeing, GE, Xerox, IBM, etc.

In the case of AMD, that "innovation-minded leader" is Lisa Su. Intel needs their own "Lisa Su".
Posted on Reply
#81
theoneandonlymrk
trparky
I like what one person said in another forum and I think this explains what's happening at Intel...

We can apply this to many companies including Oracle, Boeing, GE, Xerox, IBM, etc.

In the case of AMD, that "innovation-minded leader" is Lisa Su. Intel needs their own "Lisa Su".
I'm quite surprised they haven't bought her in, it's a twofer.

As for this , given the trends intel have set NEWS would be Intel actually hitting a target, any target.
Posted on Reply
#82
ddarko
Assimilator
I don't buy this. If they're resolved, why is 7nm still in trouble? The only explanation is that 7nm is different from 10nm yet again... but why would 7nm be different from 10nm, unless 10nm was irrevocably broken?
Intel CFO George Davis said publicly in May 2020 that 10nm was not their best process:
As we said back at our analyst day in May of 19: Look, this isn’t just going to be the best node that Intel has ever had. It’s going to be less productive than 14nm, less productive than 22nm… the fact is that I wanted to be clear what was happening during the 10nm generation. The fact is, it isn’t going to be as strong a node as people would expect from 14nm or what they’ll see in 7nm.
Posted on Reply
#83
efikkan
trparky
I like what one person said in another forum and I think this explains what's happening at Intel...

We can apply this to many companies including Oracle, Boeing, GE, Xerox, IBM, etc.

In the case of AMD, that "innovation-minded leader" is Lisa Su. Intel needs their own "Lisa Su".
There isn't a lack of innovation from Intel, nearly all of their problems have been related to their production problems.
Ice Lake/Sunny Cove has been ready for over 2 years, and their next-gen Sapphire Rapids/Golden Cove is in the final testing stages. We have nothing to indicate these are inferior to AMD's upcoming counterparts, and just imagine if the 10nm node were not holding these back, then AMD would have gotten real tough competition.

People are attributing far too much to single leaders in general, both in business and in politics. The reality is higher management are mostly important for funding and to "stay out of the way". Middle management and team management is far more important, and of course good engineering. I don't care if it's Lisa Su, Jim Keller, Raja Koduro, Jensen Huang or whomever, it's the real engineering that matters.
Posted on Reply
#84
Vayra86
Cooper Lake now? That's a new puddle... In Holland we have a saying

'Hij loopt in zeven sloten tegelijk'
Translated: "He walks into seven ditches at the same time"

Intel won't even make 7... :rolleyes:
Posted on Reply
#85
Vya Domus
chodaboy19
Intel's 10nm is closer to TSMC's 7nm
So far that's unverifiable and probably untrue because of the lack of high end high volume 10nm parts. The only aspects that we can compare objectively today is stuff like density, but without power/voltages/clocks/yeilds that means nothing, so as far as I am concerned they're way behind TSMC.
RandallFlagg
Zen 2 = TSMC 7nm (1st gen). Intel 10nm is superior to this.
Just as I said, unverifiable and likely untrue.
Posted on Reply
#86
RandallFlagg
efikkan
There isn't a lack of innovation from Intel, nearly all of their problems have been related to their production problems.
Ice Lake/Sunny Cove has been ready for over 2 years, and their next-gen Sapphire Rapids/Golden Cove is in the final testing stages. We have nothing to indicate these are inferior to AMD's upcoming counterparts, and just imagine if the 10nm node were not holding these back, then AMD would have gotten real tough competition.
I think you're missing his point. I've seen this lifecycle in action, and it does come down to the bean counters being in charge. Bean counter = someone who manages based entirely on the bottom line, quarter to quarter and one year to the next.

I can imagine the conversations at Intel 5 years ago. I have seen these kind of conversation before.

Engineer: We need to get going on the next node, and we need significant capital investment to do that.
Bean Counter:Are we behind on process technology?
Engineer: No, but we have to keep moving forward or we will be.
Bean Counter: How much do you need?
Engineer: Billions
Bean Counter: Will this new process node make us more profitable than the last, will it give us higher productivity?
Engineer: No
Bean Counter: So you want me to spend billions on something that won't benefit the business?
Engineer: You won't have a business if you don't push this.
Bean Counter: Get this jerk out of here, he doesn't understand how business works, I never want to talk to him again!

5 years later
Bean Counter: What is going on with all this negative press about our process node?
Engineer: TSMC passed us up, and AMD is using their node.
Bean Counter: So? We're still making a lot of money.
Engineer: We won't be if this continues.
Bean Counter: Well where are we on this node, we've been talking about it for years. Why can't you guys do your job?
.....
Posted on Reply
#87
TheLostSwede
trparky
I like what one person said in another forum and I think this explains what's happening at Intel...

We can apply this to many companies including Oracle, Boeing, GE, Xerox, IBM, etc.

In the case of AMD, that "innovation-minded leader" is Lisa Su. Intel needs their own "Lisa Su".
Interesting and it clearly also highlights why companies need to spend a lot of money on their R&D divisions and keep them at the forefront of the company to keep being innovative, rather than slowly dying over time.
Posted on Reply
#88
trparky
Exactly @RandallFlagg, people who can't see past the next quarter are put in charge of an engineering company. This is also what happened at Boeing, bean counters were put in charge and now we have the 737 MAX that crashed not once, not twice, but three damn times killing thousands of people.

When will these companies get it through their heads, if you need things done... don't turn to the bean counters. Turn to the engineers, they'll get it done.
RandallFlagg
Why can't you guys do your job?
Bean counters, always putting the blame on someone else.
Posted on Reply
#89
ToxicTaZ
How is this delayed?

Intel Meteor Lake 13th was always scheduled for late 2022

And everyone already knew about Intel Alder Lake scheduled for late 2021

This is fake news.

As I have been preaching about Meteor Lake for 2022 for over a year.
Posted on Reply
#90
mtcn77
ToxicTaZ
How is this delayed?

Intel Meteor Lake 13th was always scheduled for late 2022

And everyone already knew about Intel Alder Lake scheduled for late 2021

This is fake news.

As I have been preaching about Meteor Lake for 2022 for over a year.
Sometimes I wish Intel was as zealous as its fanbase. Even Samsung has done more in the previous decade.
Posted on Reply
#91
trparky
ToxicTaZ
This is fake news.
How is it fake news when Intel literally talks about it in their quarterly financial report?
Posted on Reply
#92
Zotz
ToxicTaZ
And everyone already knew about Intel Alder Lake scheduled for late 2021
Well, not quite everyone. The market didn't know, apparently.
trparky
Turn to the engineers, they'll get it done.
But you might run out of money while they're doing it. Some 19th-century capitalist said (excuse the dated genderization):

"There are three ways to go bankrupt: Women, liquor, and engineering. Of those, women are the most enjoyable but engineering is the most certain".
Posted on Reply
#93
Ashtr1x
Apart from all those comments. Intel first needs to fire all these MBA bean counter fools, Bob Swan needs to be booted out asap. Intel's strongest strength is it's Fab plants, outsourcing them means suicidal for the company ROI on these, esp given how much higher volume Intel puts out. And why did they pander BS trash when BK was ousted, instead of telling the goddamned truth that he ruined Intel with 10nm and sitting complacent all the time and appeasing investors and PR talk, spinned into some MeToo garbage. Intel needs to act together, esp Jim Keller also left no Idea whether he faced an immovable mountain or left after his work is done. USA's top Semi corporation Intel the company which built billions of PCs and made their fortune with first class performance facing this kind of struggle with pathetic 7nm technology when TSMC is already in 5nm and Samsung managed to make 8nm EUV. It's awful.

They should stop entertaining those shitty side projects and M&A, Mobileye and focus on their bread and butter CPU and Lithography. I don't know with the way how that California is looking everyday with all political nonsense atmosphere, Intel has to get proper talent who is capable of handling the corporation and it's principles. It's pathetic. 7nm delay again and 10nm high performance is nowhere to be found. Goldmont trash in x86 Sunny Cove is insane, and that awful 8C12T RKL-S parts, still PCIe 3.0 on Z5xx. Damn it Intel. Get you things straight cut the fat off those side useless projects. Oh and that fool Bob Swan sold out 5G R&D and Patents to Apple for immediate cash instead of benefiting from them with higher R&D and talent with ROI they put less money and spend more on the useless PR trash = failure.
Posted on Reply
#94
svan71
Its like in Spiderman "Back To Formula" how f'd up was it to be delayed at least another year ?
Posted on Reply
#95
john_
kapone32
I really believe AMD truly does not care about Intel's prices. They are basically selling them as fast as they can make them right now. It is a hope that is not too exotic that we will see performance improvements in IPC and clock speed without building more cores. I also believe the single CCX CPU line will be a reality in both APUs and CPUs. In terms of the thread by the time Intel actually releases 7nm AMD should have the DIY market undisputed sewn up.
Let me try another theory. Maybe AMD cares more about it's own prices. If I am not mistaken, AMD needs to buy a number of wafers from GlobalFoundries for one more year. If I am not saying something completely stupid here, then probably they have reasons to keep selling Ryzen 1000 and 2000 series for at least one more year. So pushing too many 7nm CPUs in the under $200 market will make this task too difficult. Except if OEMs buy huge quantities of cheap octacore Zen+ CPUs to use them in their cheaper models.
Posted on Reply
#96
ARF
john_
Let me try another theory. Maybe AMD cares more about it's own prices. If I am not mistaken, AMD needs to buy a number of wafers from GlobalFoundries for one more year. If I am not saying something completely stupid here, then probably they have reasons to keep selling Ryzen 1000 and 2000 series for at least one more year. So pushing too many 7nm CPUs in the under $200 market will make this task too difficult. Except if OEMs buy huge quantities of cheap octacore Zen+ CPUs to use them in their cheaper models.
AMD could still use the GF's wafers for anything else - like the IO die, chipsets, consoles chips, mobile whatever...
Ashtr1x
Apart from all those comments. Intel first needs to fire all these MBA bean counter fools, Bob Swan needs to be booted out asap. Intel's strongest strength is it's Fab plants, outsourcing them means suicidal for the company ROI on these, esp given how much higher volume Intel puts out. And why did they pander BS trash when BK was ousted, instead of telling the goddamned truth that he ruined Intel with 10nm and sitting complacent all the time and appeasing investors and PR talk, spinned into some MeToo garbage. Intel needs to act together, esp Jim Keller also left no Idea whether he faced an immovable mountain or left after his work is done. USA's top Semi corporation Intel the company which built billions of PCs and made their fortune with first class performance facing this kind of struggle with pathetic 7nm technology when TSMC is already in 5nm and Samsung managed to make 8nm EUV. It's awful.

They should stop entertaining those shitty side projects and M&A, Mobileye and focus on their bread and butter CPU and Lithography. I don't know with the way how that California is looking everyday with all political nonsense atmosphere, Intel has to get proper talent who is capable of handling the corporation and it's principles. It's pathetic. 7nm delay again and 10nm high performance is nowhere to be found. Goldmont trash in x86 Sunny Cove is insane, and that awful 8C12T RKL-S parts, still PCIe 3.0 on Z5xx. Damn it Intel. Get you things straight cut the fat off those side useless projects. Oh and that fool Bob Swan sold out 5G R&D and Patents to Apple for immediate cash instead of benefiting from them with higher R&D and talent with ROI they put less money and spend more on the useless PR trash = failure.
I don't think the talent is guilty and should be blamed but Intel's desire to keep things as exactly they have been for years - you know when something works or looks like working, don't make changes... Sitting on the very old PCIe 3 for no reason is just an example for this.
Weird ideas - big-little, half-done HT... lack of direction - this is mission, strategy, vision at the highest level - politics and policies included.
Posted on Reply
#97
mtcn77
For the first time, people are having a field day about stock listings. Weird times...
Posted on Reply
#98
ToxicTaZ
ARF
AMD could still use the GF's wafers for anything else - like the IO die, chipsets, consoles chips, mobile whatever...



I don't think the talent is guilty and should be blamed but Intel's desire to keep things as exactly they have been for years - you know when something works or looks like working, don't make changes... Sitting on the very old PCIe 3 for no reason is just an example for this.
Weird ideas - big-little, half-done HT... lack of direction - this is mission, strategy, vision at the highest level - politics and policies included.
PCIe 3.0?
11th gen Rocket Lake is PCIe 4.0.... Is out in Q1 2021 (14nm++)

New architecture 16 Cores (big.Little)

12th gen Alder Lake is PCIe 4.0..... Is Q4 2021 (10nm++)

13th gen Meteor Lake is PCIe 5.0.... Is Q4 2022 (7nm+)

People like to talk about PCIe 4.0 technology yet its very short lived as Both AMD and Intel have PCIe 5.0 with DDR5 and USB-4 WiFi-6E 5G technology in two years.

PCIe 4.0 is only on two generations from both sides AMD and Intel.

Not sure why would anyone buy Intel H5 LGA 1200 socket when we all know that H6 LGA 1700 socket is coming, at the same time as AMD has AM5 coming!

Intel 13th generation (Meteor Lake-S) 7nm+ on second generation H6 LGA 1700 socket PCIe 5.0 with DDR5 and USB-4 WiFi-6E 5G technology.

Intel Meteor Lake (7nm+) is there most important upcoming project that Jim Keller worked on directly (Ocean Cove) new core design.

Meteor Lake is Intel first 7nm+ CPUs out of there brand new Fab42 factory.

Intel 7nm+ EUV technology is using Graphene

We will have to change the name from Silicon Valley to Graphene Valley very soon.
Posted on Reply
#99
Xex360
londiste
I do not understand the popular opinion that Intel does nothing. They absolutely do a lot of things.
We are all disappointed that they are failing to bring out proper competition to AMD Ryzens but come on.

After Sandy Bridge they did 22nm and 14nm manufacturing processes, arguably the 10nm process and 7nm is somewhere in the pipeline.
In terms of CPUs, AVX2, extending execution resources and caches, adding new tech as it comes along etc. And Ice Lake has even more substantial changes than that. Current Comet Lake (which is a rehashed Skylake from 2015) is ~25% faster than Sandy Bridge with single core load at the same clock. Ice Lake is a good step faster than that, Intel's 18% has been verified to be true enough.

This is just mainline CPUs. There is the Atom line that Intel seems to be getting back to with Tremont. There is XPoint with hopefully new gen coming out at one point.
Plus there are a bunch of other things Intel does with varying degrees of success - NAND Flash and controllers, FPGAs come to mind. Packaging technologies like EMIB or Foveros. Mobile modems and 5G is something they failed at.
Of course it's an exaggeration to say so, but given the size of the company and how much money they have they could've done much more, AMD should've never been able to catch up, they were basically broke. Intel locked us with stupid 4 cores for ages, the Ryzen 1700 destroys Intel's 4 cores besides games that were made around Intel's architecture (hopefully this will change now, and we'll have games optimised for both platforms).
That's why at least some say so.
Posted on Reply
#100
TheGuruStud
Caqde
So based on what we are seeing here. Alder-Lake S will go against the 5nm Zen 4 Desktop CPU's (Late 2021/Early 2022)..... And the first 7nm Intel CPU's will be up against a future 5nm+ "Zen 5" chip in Late 2022/Early 2023... Yup doing good Intel. A bit later and you can play against a potential 3nm "Zen 6" chip. Keep the delays coming....
Intel won't have volume production. TSMC will probably have amazing yields as usual. Intel is gonna meltdown aside from power consumption lol

And you know this only the first delay announcement. Another will come.
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