SK hynix reported its latest Q3 2026 quarterly results with a record $78.129 billion in net revenue. However, the company also shared a market outlook, highlighting its long-term supply agreements and plans for expansion with new fab capacity and facilities under construction. For the consumer market, the outlook is grim as SK hynix expects memory demand to continue outpacing supply through 2030. The main supply constraint is the complexity of leading-edge semiconductor nodes and the lengthy lead times for fab construction, which take years to translate into regular mass production volumes.

Despite sustained demand, pricing is also on an upward trajectory, with the average selling price of memory modules in Q3 increasing by over 20% compared to Q2. This is concerning, as it suggests that the prices of consumer electronics devices might jump by more than 20% once memory inventory is depleted. Although SK hynix expects a decrease in PC and smartphone shipments, this will be offset by a strong rollout of AI data centers. About 14 major customers, including most hyperscalers, have signed 5-year long-term agreements, which will account for over 50% of total capacity sold for 2027 and 2028.SK hynix expects its DRAM business to continue aggressively adopting the 1c nm node. As a reminder, DRAM nodes differ from conventional logic nodes. DRAM manufacturers use variations of 10 nm, scaling them with more EUV layers or advanced features. For SK hynix, the currently dominant 1b node is around 12-13 nm in actual design and involves about 4 layers of EUV patterning, while the most advanced 1c node shrinks to 11-12 nm with 5-6 layers of EUV. SK hynix will use the 1c node to manufacture HBM4E, LPDDR6, and DDR5 memory. For the older 1b node, SK hynix produces DDR5, LPDDR5X, HBM3E, and HBM4.

In the HBM segment, Q4 is expected to see HBM4 surpass HBM3E in shipment and revenue share, and negotiations for 2027 HBM have been finalized. Finally, for NAND, the majority of production output is now 321-layer NAND Flash, and SK hynix continues to work on HBF solutions.