Tuesday, August 11th 2026

NVIDIA RTX 50 Series Median Prices Jump Up to 41% in August, with MSRP Now a Distant Dream

NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 50 series of "Blackwell" graphics cards has seen significant price increases over the past few months, with a particularly notable jump between July and August. On Newegg, one of the largest computer hardware retailers in the United States, there has been a noticeable change in the median listed price for each GeForce RTX 50 model. For instance, the entry-level GeForce RTX 5050 had a median price of $300 in June, which rose by 5% to $315 in August. Moving up the range, the GeForce RTX 5060 was listed at an average of $370 in July, but this increased by 27% to $470 in August, marking a $100 difference. However, this is just the beginning.

The 8 GB edition of the RTX 5060 Ti was priced at $470 and has now risen to $530, reflecting a 13% increase. The most significant change occurred with the 16 GB version of the RTX 5060 Ti, which jumped from $570 in July to $805 in August, a 39% increase. The RTX 5070 experienced a similar percentage rise of 36%, going from $660 to $900. The RTX 5070 Ti remained steady at $1100, while the RTX 5080 saw a modest 3% increase from $1462 to $1500. The flagship GeForce RTX 5090 recorded a 9% increase, moving from $4300 to $4700.
When compared with the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP), the situation becomes even more striking. As indicated by the table, the RTX 50 series is now selling significantly above the MSRP that NVIDIA still officially lists on its website, with the flagship GeForce RTX 5090 commanding a median price that is a staggering 135% above MSRP. Much of this discrepancy is due to significant pricing adjustments by memory manufacturers, which are being passed on to add-in board partners. Since higher-end cards use more VRAM, the price differences are more pronounced.
Sources: Tom's Hardware, VideoCardz
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195 Comments on NVIDIA RTX 50 Series Median Prices Jump Up to 41% in August, with MSRP Now a Distant Dream

#176
JustBenching
RuruFor few years, people have been "VOTE WITH YOUR WALLET!!!11" yet still they buy just like before. They can ask whatever they want from their overpriced crap, people will still buy them.

4700USD for a card which will burn your house down? A box of matches costs few cents and does the same job.
The real question is why do you care? If a 5090 is equivalent to a box of matches, why do you care whether it costs 4000 or 50.000. Or 5 million. People ARE voting with their wallet. Just because you don't agree with what they are voting for doesn't mean they are not doing it. They are.
Posted on Reply
#177
razzaQ
ZoneDymothe only reason they can get away with this is because people keep buying......
Unfortunately that doesn't fly anymore with the advent of the AI boom companies that buy anything RAM/NAND related.

Enterprise market has grown so much that the end user market, meaning US the regular Joe is restricted to just a few products and that is the fault (and opportunity) of the producers (nvidia/amd/intel/ TSMC) that want the profit NOW, short term and "castrate" the long term buyers like us.
Posted on Reply
#178
wolf
Better Than Native
JustBenchingPeople ARE voting with their wallet
The subtext to the vote with your wallet statement, is they want you to buy AMD because they are typically cheaper, they just phrase it that way to make it seem altruistic.

Ive also yet to see a 5090 burn down a house, or a box of matches render graphics, but such is the state of outrage engagement.
Posted on Reply
#179
A Computer Guy
Tyler-98-W68AMD can't release any high end cards for years on end, kind of a pathetic position
Intel can’t release any high end cards either, we are doomed!
Posted on Reply
#180
Dr. Dro
wolfThe subtext to the vote with your wallet statement, is they want you to buy AMD because they are typically cheaper, they just phrase it that way to make it seem altruistic.

Ive also yet to see a 5090 burn down a house, or a box of matches render graphics, but such is the state of outrage engagement.

Just Buy It: Why the AMD Radeon RX 9050 4 GB Is Worth the Money


New technology usually gets cheaper if you wait long enough. So, inevitably, whenever a component hits the market, plenty of sensible people will tell you to hold off until prices drop or the thing actually works properly. That's why, this week, so many level-headed voices are telling shoppers to think twice before buying AMD's new Radeon RX 9050 4 GB.

But what these price-panicked pundits fail to grasp is that there is enormous value in being an early adopter — even of a card with less video memory than a browser tab full of open Chrome windows. Sure, the benchmarks haven't fully come in. Sure, "4 GB" is a number normally associated with USB flash drives. None of that matters. If the RX 9050 delivers even a fraction of what its marketing slide promised, you will not want to settle for last-gen technology, or indeed for a card that can hold more than one texture in memory at a time.

The Real Cost of Buying Outdated Tech

Let's say you're building a new rig this fall. You could buy a perfectly capable older card for a few hundred dollars, but if you do, you'll never know the singular thrill of watching a AAA game's texture pop-in happen in slow motion, frame by frame, like a flipbook animation drawn by someone who ran out of paper. That's the Radeon RX 9050 4 GB experience, and honestly, isn't that a kind of art? Unless you plan on upgrading every single year, you're going to be stuck without the RX 9050's signature feature: the ability to open Task Manager and watch VRAM usage hit its ceiling in real time. Do you want to put yourself behind the curve?

Benefits of the RX 9050 4 GB

AMD's own marketing describes the RX 9050 4 GB as "aggressively priced," which is corporate speak for "we know exactly what you're getting, and so should you." According to AMD's own numbers, the card delivers between 2 and 4 percent better performance than integrated graphics in games from roughly a decade ago, provided you also lower the resolution, the texture quality, and possibly your expectations.

That's not nothing! In a world where every other card is chasing 4K ray tracing, the Radeon RX 9050 4 GB boldly asks: what if we just didn't? What if 1080p Low were the new ultra? It's less a graphics card and more a lifestyle philosophy.

Why the Price Won't Drop Anytime Soon

Yes, the RX 9050 4 GB costs more than you might expect for what it is. But there are good reasons for that. First, AMD needs to clear out inventory of cards that are, somehow, more capable. Second, demand is real — scalpers know a meme when they see one, and the RX 9050 4 GB has become something of a collector's item among people who enjoy irony. Third, four gigabytes of memory chips still cost a lot of money, even if using them all at once causes the driver to have what can only be described as an emotional crisis.

Bottom Line

If you can possibly afford a Radeon RX 9050 4 GB — and at this point, most people can — there's plenty of reason to pull the trigger, either right now or after reading independent reviews that will almost certainly beg you to reconsider. The time you spend waiting and complaining about stutter is time you could spend experiencing stutter directly, first-hand, the way AMD intended.

Life is short. How many months do you want to wait to enjoy the Radeon RX 9050 4 GB? You can sit around hoping for a version with more VRAM, or you can enter the world of aggressively-priced graphics cards today and never look back. When you die and your whole life flashes before your eyes, how much of it do you want to be rendered without AMD FSR 4 in "Ultra Performance" mode?

www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-rtx-gpus-worth-the-money,37689.html
YouseethisThe abnormal times lasted longer than the "normal" the last 6 years :roll:
Very true... and also very unfortunate :(
Posted on Reply
#181
Lew Zealand
Tyler-98-W68So its also nvidias fault that you can get better performance at a fraction of the power draw with current GPUs?

A 7900xtx "competitive" with a 5070ti, so 25-30% slower while consuming 20-30% more power. Yes it has 8gb more ram and you specifically mention gaming, but why does the 5070ti crush the xtx in games despite less ram?
If by "crushing" you mean being the same speed, then I guess OK. The 7900XTX's lead widens at 4K so I'm giving the 5070 Ti the benefit of the doubt here:



And yes this is in gaming, were you thinking of a different load?
Posted on Reply
#182
AsRock
TPU addict
AthenaI mean, that's true, the latest crop of AAA games have been mostly a disaster, and nobody is really playing them

however, the good news is that the game devs have to optimize their games now, instead of telling people to keep buying the latest and greatest GFX cards or their games won't sell
They need to do much more than that.
Posted on Reply
#183
wolf
Better Than Native
Dr. DroJust Buy It: Why the AMD Radeon RX 9050 4 GB Is Worth the Money
Even the 8GB model isn't worth it's price tag. Markedly slower than a RTX 5050 or 3060, RX 6650XT or 7600, for an insulting price of $280 USD, as well as of course carrying the same name as the 4GB model which is highly misleading given the halving of memory bandwidth, and is clearly going to disappoint even more people.

AMD are even actively trying to stop it being reviewed, not just a quiet launch and not seeding samples, actively trying to stop it being reviewed.

Video Cardz article

Hardware Unboxed reviewed the 8GB model and said (transcript from their video):

Right away, let's address the elephant in the room. I don't have an RX 9050 sitting here on the desk, and that's because I can't tell you which Radeon RX 9050 8GB model I have. Since I can't disclose the specific model, I can't show it to you either. You'll just have to take my word for it on this one. I do have one, I have tested it, and this is all real.

AMD wouldn't provide me with a review sample, and none of their board partners were allowed to send me one either.

So we had to go through some alternative channels, get in touch with a few people, and eventually we managed to obtain a card. Unfortunately, I can't show you the box, the card itself, or even mention which model it is. Those were conditions requested by the people who provided it.

The RX 9050 is available at retail, but only in Latin America, Asia-Pacific, and Japan. However, Australia, despite being part of the Asia-Pacific region, along with Korea, has been excluded. Now, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if AMD excluded Australia in an attempt to avoid scrutiny from us, considering how brutally we criticized the RX 6500 XT.

Honestly, I almost wouldn't blame them. AMD essentially begged us to stop covering the 6500 XT. I'm not kidding. AMD employees actually reached out and asked whether we could stop talking about it. Of course, we didn't. What made the situation even funnier was that they later sent us the 8GB version and asked if we could test that instead going forward. I agreed, and then we ended up testing both versions anyway.

I'm joking a little about AMD trying to dodge us. It's true they asked us to stop beating up on the 6500 XT, which I still find hilarious, but I don't seriously think AMD excluded the entire Australian market just to prevent us from reviewing the RX 9050. That said, if that really was the plan, the joke is on them because, as I mentioned, we did manage to get one. I just can't show it to you

I sure hope people vote with their wallet!
Posted on Reply
#184
Hecate91
By voting with your wallet, I assume some mean spend more on an Nvidia card, just because they're allergic to anything else.
But no nvidia would never be so evil as to not send out review samples, oh wait they've done that before, by launching the 5060 quietly during Computex which is quite a bit more disingenuous as it's a card tier most people will buy. Although some like to act like Nvidia could never do that,but if they did it's no big deal.
Then again, of course the usual people can't pass up an opportunity to bash on AMD, in an Nvidia thread no less.
Edit- I'm not arguing for the 9050, it's an overpriced turd, however thanks to the market leader who can price something at whatever they want and people refuse to vote with their wallets, of course AMD will unfortunately follow that pricing tactic. That's how competition works when we essentially only have two dedicated GPU companies, Intel seems to have suddenly given up on the gaming dGPU market right after they received funding from Nvidia.
Posted on Reply
#185
Lew Zealand
wolfEven the 8GB model isn't worth it's price tag. Markedly slower than a RTX 5050 or 3060, RX 6650XT or 7600, for an insulting price of $280 USD...
You might be insulted at the price but there's currently a single GPU in your list available for less:



This is not an argument for the 9050 as it's value still sucks. The problem is almost everything's value sucks a similar amount.
Posted on Reply
#186
wolf
Better Than Native
Hecate91by launching the 5060 quietly during Computex which is quite a bit more disingenuous
A quiet launch with all expected reviews following it, is more disingenuous than actively blocking reviewers from getting any samples to review?

I'd love to hear how that maths, admitting the 9050 is bad value doesn't explain the mental gymnastics defence that Nvidia did it worse when they ostensibly didn't... tell me I'm wrong, I welcome a logical rationale.
Hecate91Then again, of course the usual people can't pass up an opportunity to bash on AMD, in an Nvidia thread no less....... and people refuse to vote with their wallets.........
Coming from the forum's leading supplier of off-topic Nvidia criticism, the lack of self-awareness here is genuinely impressive. If irony consumed power, your PC would trip the breaker.

The evidence plainly says that people do indeed vote with their wallets, they just don't buy what you would buy, because news flash, they aren't you.

The difference between you and I is I am open to any brand as long as the product fits my buying need (see, specs, collection, previous GPU's, current purchase rationale), where you are tunnel visioned to exclude Nvidia because of some perceived moral high horse/hatred type complex, the sooner you get over it, the sooner you will be free of the grip it has on you.

The person allergic to buying anything but a single brand is you.

Stop projecting that onto others.
Lew ZealandYou might be insulted at the price but there's currently a single GPU in your list available for less:

This is not an argument for the 9050 as it's value still sucks.
In that screenshot the 7600 or 5050 make a decent chunk more sense.

9050 49fps average at 1080p $280
5050 59fps average at 1080p, $300 - 11% better value
7600 60fps average at 1080p, $300 - 12.4% better value

EDIT: missed the $260 RX7600, 24.3% better value, far out. Spend $20 less, get ~20% more performance. That value might not be amazing, but it sure doesn't suck compared to the 9050.

The 9060XT is also 18.6% better value, but given the price difference I can see how it sits in somewhat of a different category, where someone willing to spend $280 should absolutely be willing to stretch another $20 for the better products.
Posted on Reply
#187
JustBenching
Hecate91But no nvidia would never be so evil as to not send out review samples, oh wait they've done that before, by launching the 5060 quietly during Computex which is quite a bit more disingenuous as it's a card tier most people will buy.
So AMD is very evil too for not sending review samples...right?
Posted on Reply
#188
Tyler-98-W68
By voting with your wallet, I assume some mean spend more on an Nvidia card, just because they're allergic to anything else.
Again the resident poor worshipping AMD again.
Why can't you accept that AMD does not offer a compelling product for a lot of people?

Maybe if AMD had something that fit my needs I'd buy it. But they don't so I don't buy their products, pretty simple. You mean to tell me everything and everyone must buy a 9070xt because its the bestest GPU ever and nothing Nvidia has is worthy. You mean to say Nvidia does not have a product at any price range for any consumers?
however thanks to the market leader who can price something at whatever they want and people refuse to vote with their wallets
So why isn't AMD the market leader? We jealous much here, ignoring the current AI bubble, you mean to say Nvidia has never had compelling MRSP for their products?


I'd love to hear your answer but I know it already.

1. People have too much money and waste it
2. Nvidia hurt your feelings
3. AI sucks
4. AMD is the greatest
5. NVIDIA sucks.

I think i got everything. Did I miss anything @Hecate91
Posted on Reply
#189
Prima.Vera
RuruFor few years, people have been "VOTE WITH YOUR WALLET!!!11" yet still they buy just like before. They can ask whatever they want from their overpriced crap, people will still buy them.

4700USD for a card which will burn your house down? A box of matches costs few cents and does the same job.
Yes, but here is the thing.
20-30 years ago, you could have buy a video card at MSRP next day from the local store. The cards were available from day 1 and they were available in sufficient margins everywhere.
Nowadays they are just paper launches, with very scarce availability, and usually callously sold with up to 50% above MSRP by scalpers or greedy online retailer, in very limited quantities.
Of course there are people who are willing to pay the big bucks.
Now, if the cards would be available everywhere, on day 1, and on generous quantities, would you still think people would pay inflated prices anyways? ;)
Posted on Reply
#190
Dr. Dro
Hecate91But no nvidia would never be so evil as to not send out review samples, oh wait they've done that before, by launching the 5060 quietly during Computex which is quite a bit more disingenuous as it's a card tier most people will buy. Although some like to act like Nvidia could never do that,but if they did it's no big deal.
You saw the difference between that and the 9050 review? HUB wasn't even allowed to show what card they reviewed, yet the Nvidia one is right there on the thumbnail. They went quite a bit beyond not sending review samples. Usually when they can't even show the product is because it's embargoed (under legal threat), the 9050 HUB got clearly was acquired through a back channel undisclosed supplier.

If the 8 GB one is that bad though, the 4 GB one is going to be a problem... this thing is a masterclass on how not to release a product:

- Two different configurations (one being substantially worse) sold under the same name, then backtracking at the last minute and claiming it's "OEM only" after it clearly didn't pan out
- Performance promises that the product is clearly unable to keep
- Aggressive press control (as if the loyal fans didn't run defense for free already)
- Paper launch
- Dogshit pricing

It's extremely unfortunate, even with the current market conditions taken into account. If AMD was willing to give up on whatever margins, launch 4 GB at $99 and 8 GB at $149, nobody would complain. Not a soul. But it's "OEM" and $280 (street pricing: $350+), so there you have it
Posted on Reply
#192
Dr. Dro
Sub Nanometer ProcessThe Death of Computer Gaming
Nah, I'll be gaming on my PC until i'm an old coot who can't see an inch in front of him, and even then. I might have to give up on having the very latest hardware, but I will certainly live.
Posted on Reply
#193
Harbinger Ace
There is no market reason for these insane price hikes. It feels like Nvidia is doing it just because they can. Maybe the board partners are complaining they don't make enough money? No matter what, it's completely out of touch.

I'm too lazy to read if someone else already made this argument, but Nvidia would be doing AMD a huge favor here if ding-dong gamers didn't keep buying Nvidia anyway.

As someone who legitimately requires Nvidia hardware—AMD and Intel GPUs practically don't work—I'll just live with one 5080 plus older hardware until this blows over.
If it blows over, anyway...
Posted on Reply
#194
Warigator
Hecate91Instead of mitigating problems, as humans have done and have been fine with, let's just power up a bunch of datacenters to cause even more problems such as polluted water, air, and possibly crash the entire worlds economy when the promises made of AI magically making everything better aren't possible because the circular economy keeping AI companies afloat isn't sustainable.

AI in specialized fields like medical science, or logistics is important, but it isn't to the degree that people like scam altman and the leather jacket man are telling us it is.
You have no idea what you are writing about.

You are massively exaggerating the downsides of data centers while simultaneously underestimating the development of AI itself. Yes, data centers consume electricity, water and physical resources. Nobody is denying that. But treating those costs as though they somehow invalidate the technology, while barely accounting for what increasingly capable AI systems can actually do, is an extraordinarily one-sided way of looking at this.

AI is not some static technology whose capabilities in 2030 or 2035 will look approximately like what we have today. The systems are becoming more capable, more general and more useful at an extremely rapid rate, while the amount of compute, investment, research effort and infrastructure being devoted to them keeps increasing. What we have now is the beginning, not the finished product.

And that is precisely what you seem to be missing. You are looking at the electricity and cooling requirements of today's data centers and projecting those costs forward, while effectively treating AI capabilities themselves as if they were barely going to change. That makes no sense.

This is potentially a much larger technological transition than the PC, the Internet or smartphones, because those technologies primarily gave humans better tools and better access to information. AI increasingly automates parts of cognition itself: programming, research, engineering, design, analysis, planning, scientific discovery and eventually an enormous range of intellectual work. Combine that with robotics and the effects extend into physical work as well.

Calling it a "scam" or assuming it is all a bubble because you dislike Altman, Huang or current corporate financing does not address any of that. Individual companies can absolutely be overvalued. Investments can be wasteful. Some AI companies will fail. There may even be a major market correction. None of those things would make AI itself a scam any more than the dot-com crash made the Internet a scam.

What is happening here is much bigger than a temporary stock-market cycle. We are entering a new chapter in technological and, ultimately, civilizational history. A transition in which machines become increasingly capable of performing cognitive tasks that until very recently could only be performed by human beings.

I don't think the scale of that change can easily be exaggerated. If anything, people who look at today's imperfect systems and conclude that AI is fundamentally overhyped are likely underestimating how radically different the situation can become as the technology continues to improve over the coming years.

Turns out that I was mostly correct many years ago about the coming wave of learning computers. But I did naively think that the situation today would be better overall than it is (I overestimated humans in younger years). Doesn't change the overall long-term trajectory though.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Human civilization is constrained by human intelligence. We have had billions of human brains working for generations and there are still enormous numbers of problems we either cannot solve, solve extremely slowly, or merely learn to tolerate. Human cognition is limited in memory, speed, attention, coordination, foresight, lifespan and the number of variables it can meaningfully reason about at once.

So no, I do not think the answer is to simply remain at approximately human levels of intelligence forever and hope that the same limited minds will eventually fix everything. The way out is to scale intelligence far beyond the level available inside individual human brains.

That is why I consider the enormous investment in AI compute fundamentally justified. Not every company will succeed. Not every datacenter investment will be efficient. There will be waste, bad products, bubbles inside the larger trend and probably some spectacular failures. None of that changes the underlying necessity of building much more capable intelligence!

And the pace of development is exactly why judging this by the limitations of today's models makes so little sense. Claude Fable 5.1 was released this week. GPT-6 Astra has now been announced and is rolling out. There will be more models after them. Systems that seemed extraordinary three years ago are already obsolete. The limitations of AI in 2026 are not the limitations AI will have in 2029, 2032 or 2036.

Once intelligence itself can be scaled through compute, improved algorithms, larger systems, agents, robotics and automated research, it begins affecting the process by which nearly every other technology is developed. Better intelligence can design better chips, better robots, better energy systems, better materials, better medicine, better manufacturing, better software and eventually better AI systems.

I expect the next fifteen years to involve not merely better chatbots, but enormous numbers of increasingly autonomous robots, machines operating at scales humans cannot, AI-run laboratories and factories, far larger computing infrastructure, increasingly automated scientific and engineering research and intelligence in datacenters that vastly exceeds what any individual human being can do. Billions of humanoid general-purpose robots!

There will be computing infrastructure in orbit and on the Moon. There will be microscopic and nanoscale machines performing tasks that are impossible today. I am not claiming I can predict the exact year each particular technology becomes economical, but dismissing that direction because today's models are imperfect is an extraordinarily poor way of thinking about technological development.

The important variable is not whether an LLM or other type of AI in 2026 occasionally makes a mistake. The important variable is whether machine intelligence continues to improve, whether we can scale it, and whether it increasingly contribute to improving the next generation of science, engineering and technology (recursive improvement!!).

If the answer to those questions is yes, then this is vastly more consequential than whether a graphics card or a RAM kit costs a few hundred dollars more this year or also over the next few years.

Consumer GPU pricing matters to me and annoys me too (games can be demanding, you know). But on the scale of what is happening, it is not the most important thing. I would rather live through the disruption caused by humanity building intelligence orders of magnitude beyond its own than choose stagnation because building it requires electricity, water, datacenters and capital.
Posted on Reply
#195
AVATARAT
WarigatorYou have no idea what you are writing about.

You are massively exaggerating the downsides of data centers while simultaneously underestimating the development of AI itself. Yes, data centers consume electricity, water and physical resources. Nobody is denying that. But treating those costs as though they somehow invalidate the technology, while barely accounting for what increasingly capable AI systems can actually do, is an extraordinarily one-sided way of looking at this.

AI is not some static technology whose capabilities in 2030 or 2035 will look approximately like what we have today. The systems are becoming more capable, more general and more useful at an extremely rapid rate, while the amount of compute, investment, research effort and infrastructure being devoted to them keeps increasing. What we have now is the beginning, not the finished product.

And that is precisely what you seem to be missing. You are looking at the electricity and cooling requirements of today's data centers and projecting those costs forward, while effectively treating AI capabilities themselves as if they were barely going to change. That makes no sense.

This is potentially a much larger technological transition than the PC, the Internet or smartphones, because those technologies primarily gave humans better tools and better access to information. AI increasingly automates parts of cognition itself: programming, research, engineering, design, analysis, planning, scientific discovery and eventually an enormous range of intellectual work. Combine that with robotics and the effects extend into physical work as well.

Calling it a "scam" or assuming it is all a bubble because you dislike Altman, Huang or current corporate financing does not address any of that. Individual companies can absolutely be overvalued. Investments can be wasteful. Some AI companies will fail. There may even be a major market correction. None of those things would make AI itself a scam any more than the dot-com crash made the Internet a scam.

What is happening here is much bigger than a temporary stock-market cycle. We are entering a new chapter in technological and, ultimately, civilizational history. A transition in which machines become increasingly capable of performing cognitive tasks that until very recently could only be performed by human beings.

I don't think the scale of that change can easily be exaggerated. If anything, people who look at today's imperfect systems and conclude that AI is fundamentally overhyped are likely underestimating how radically different the situation can become as the technology continues to improve over the coming years.

Turns out that I was mostly correct many years ago about the coming wave of learning computers. But I did naively think that the situation today would be better overall than it is (I overestimated humans in younger years). Doesn't change the overall long-term trajectory though.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Human civilization is constrained by human intelligence. We have had billions of human brains working for generations and there are still enormous numbers of problems we either cannot solve, solve extremely slowly, or merely learn to tolerate. Human cognition is limited in memory, speed, attention, coordination, foresight, lifespan and the number of variables it can meaningfully reason about at once.

So no, I do not think the answer is to simply remain at approximately human levels of intelligence forever and hope that the same limited minds will eventually fix everything. The way out is to scale intelligence far beyond the level available inside individual human brains.

That is why I consider the enormous investment in AI compute fundamentally justified. Not every company will succeed. Not every datacenter investment will be efficient. There will be waste, bad products, bubbles inside the larger trend and probably some spectacular failures. None of that changes the underlying necessity of building much more capable intelligence!

And the pace of development is exactly why judging this by the limitations of today's models makes so little sense. Claude Fable 5.1 was released this week. GPT-6 Astra has now been announced and is rolling out. There will be more models after them. Systems that seemed extraordinary three years ago are already obsolete. The limitations of AI in 2026 are not the limitations AI will have in 2029, 2032 or 2036.

Once intelligence itself can be scaled through compute, improved algorithms, larger systems, agents, robotics and automated research, it begins affecting the process by which nearly every other technology is developed. Better intelligence can design better chips, better robots, better energy systems, better materials, better medicine, better manufacturing, better software and eventually better AI systems.

I expect the next fifteen years to involve not merely better chatbots, but enormous numbers of increasingly autonomous robots, machines operating at scales humans cannot, AI-run laboratories and factories, far larger computing infrastructure, increasingly automated scientific and engineering research and intelligence in datacenters that vastly exceeds what any individual human being can do. Billions of humanoid general-purpose robots!

There will be computing infrastructure in orbit and on the Moon. There will be microscopic and nanoscale machines performing tasks that are impossible today. I am not claiming I can predict the exact year each particular technology becomes economical, but dismissing that direction because today's models are imperfect is an extraordinarily poor way of thinking about technological development.

The important variable is not whether an LLM or other type of AI in 2026 occasionally makes a mistake. The important variable is whether machine intelligence continues to improve, whether we can scale it, and whether it increasingly contribute to improving the next generation of science, engineering and technology (recursive improvement!!).

If the answer to those questions is yes, then this is vastly more consequential than whether a graphics card or a RAM kit costs a few hundred dollars more this year or also over the next few years.

Consumer GPU pricing matters to me and annoys me too (games can be demanding, you know). But on the scale of what is happening, it is not the most important thing. I would rather live through the disruption caused by humanity building intelligence orders of magnitude beyond its own than choose stagnation because building it requires electricity, water, datacenters and capital.
I really like people like you, because dreamers are always good people.
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