Thursday, December 24th 2020

Prices of NAND Flash Controller ICs Poised to Rise by 15-20% due to Tightening Production Capacity for Foundry Services, Says TrendForce

In the upstream semiconductor industry, the major foundries such as TSMC and UMC are reporting fully loaded capacities, while in the downstream, the available production capacity for OSAT is also lacking, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. Given this situation, suppliers of NAND Flash controller ICs such as Phison and Silicon Motion are now unable to meet upside demand from their clients. Not only have many controller IC suppliers temporarily stopped offering quotes for new orders, but they are also even considering raising prices soon because the negotiations between NAND Flash suppliers and module houses over 1Q21 contracts are now at the critical juncture. The potential increases in prices of controller ICs from outsourced suppliers (IC design houses) are currently estimated to be the range of 15-20%.

With regards to the demand side, demand has risen significantly for eMMC solutions with medium- and low-density specifications (i.e., 64 GB and lower), for which NAND Flash suppliers have mostly stopped updating the NAND Flash process technology, while maintaining support with the legacy 2D NAND or the 64L 3D NAND process. This is on account of strong sales for Chromebook devices and TVs. As older processes gradually account for a lowering portion of bit output proportions from NAND Flash suppliers, these companies are exhibiting a lowered willingness to directly supply such eMMC products to clients. As a result, clients now need to turn to memory module houses, which are able to source NAND Flash components and controllers, to procure eMMC products in substantial quantities.
Hikes in prices of controller ICs will lead to hikes in module prices with mainstream 32 GB and 64 GB solutions for Chromebooks experiencing largest increases
TrendForce points out that even though the whole NAND Flash market is still in oversupply right now, medium- and low-density eMMC solutions will likely experience price hikes as they are in tight supply due to insufficient output of controller ICs. An increase in prices of controller ICs will result in a corresponding increase in the fixed costs of eMMC solutions. This, in turn, will put pressure on OEMs that are procuring components. With this scenario now becoming a reality, prices of those eMMC solutions that are in high demand could rise slightly in 1Q21. Examples include 32 GB and 64 GB solutions for Chromebook devices.

In the SSD market, the major NAND Flash suppliers such as Samsung are also the major device manufacturers. Most SSD manufacturers have in-house controller ICs that are made at foundries under long-term agreements. Hence, there have been no reports of price hikes or shortages for SSD controller ICs. However, TrendForce has observed that lead time has been prolonged for SSD controller ICs as well. Additionally, the share of SSD controller ICs that have been outsourced to IC design houses has increased for SSDs with PCIe 4.0. In the future, there is an increasing possibility that prices of SSD controller ICs will be affected by the statuses of outsourced IC suppliers.
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26 Comments on Prices of NAND Flash Controller ICs Poised to Rise by 15-20% due to Tightening Production Capacity for Foundry Services, Says TrendForce

#1
HTC
Prices of NAND Flash Controller ICs Poised to Rise by 15-20% due to Tightening Production Capacity for Foundry Services, Says TrendForce because they want to
There: corrected the title ...
Posted on Reply
#3
TumbleGeorge
There is no point to produce in 2021 small SSD with below 240/256GB size...hmm maybe even below 480/512GB is no point because more 4TB and 8TB is on market soon and biggest (16TB?) And price of ~500GB is very cheap and very accessible to all, even the poorest people and businesses. Yes for small office and for very budget PCs is was enough 30, 60, 120... But it's a lot of this has been produced in past there are large stocks that have not yet been sold.
Posted on Reply
#4
Rictorhell
Some of you are apparently away for the holidays, or just missed this article completely, somehow. But I will say "it" :)

It's just kind of shocking that there is no excuse of power outages, flooding, lightning strikes, parts shortages, WHATEVER!

They've just given up the pretense of excuses and are now just blatantly, intentionally colluding to raise prices "by any means possible".

"Progress"? "Evolution"? You be the judge.

*you're welcome, Merry Christmas :)
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#6
bonehead123
I'm sooooooooo shocked, I just can't stand it :shadedshu::mad::shadedshu::(:shadedshu::eek::twitch:
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#7
Chrispy_
Good, this will mean that finally 128GB SSDs can stop blighting entry-level laptops because SSD manufacturers can't afford to waste constrained controllers on bottom-of-the-barrel, low-capacity junk. With a bit of luck, 500GB will be the new minimum in anything not ultra-budget, and even those will get 250GB.

The next trick the industry needs to learn is not equipping laptops with only 4 or 8GB of unupgradable, soldered RAM and charging a thousand bucks for it. RAM is ultra-cheap right now, I'm slapping 64 or 128GB in every workstation I roll out, not because they need it, but because DDR4 RAM is at the lowest purchase point it's likely to be for a looooonnng time.
Posted on Reply
#8
FreedomEclipse
~Technological Technocrat~
TumbleGeorgeThere is no point to produce in 2021 small SSD with below 240/256GB size
Some people running linux distros or in server management environments would disagree.
Posted on Reply
#9
Chrispy_
FreedomEclipseSome people running linux distros or in server management environments would disagree.
We use SDCards, or eMMC SATA dongles plugged straight into a motherboard port.

If you're using a linux distro for consumer use, your disk requirements are much the same as any other OS.

In server management environments, the heavy-lifting servers themselves only tend to run very lightweight hypervisors. All of the real OS stuff is virtualised elsewhere, or managed by a dedicated appliance.

One of my most powerful servers costing in excess of €50K boots off a RAID1 pair of 16GB SD cards and has no other local storage to speak of, and that's true for many of the VM hosts in my estate and presumably is the norm for many other companies globally. I think that SD card is almost redundant, as it's more like an OS on an EEPROM and that machine has been rebooted maybe half a dozen times, ever.
Posted on Reply
#10
TumbleGeorge
FreedomEclipseSome people running linux distros or in server management environments would disagree.
They already has hardware to do it. For what to buy new very small SSD?
Posted on Reply
#11
AnarchoPrimitiv
I don't even need more storage space, but now I feel inclined to go out and buy a new SSD now
Posted on Reply
#12
bonehead123
Chrispy_I'm slapping 64 or 128GB in every workstation I roll out, not because they need it, but because DDR4 RAM is at the lowest purchase point it's likely to be for a looooonnng time.
Same here, I've told my commercial clients "Get it while it's cheap", "Stock up now or pay up later", and/or "stack it high & let it fly" hehehehe...

I even had someone ask me yesterday if I could build him some workstations with 256 or 512GB, and I told him if he wants it, now is THE time to do it :)
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#13
low
What does that mean? Prices for samsung 980 pro rise? Prices for OEM SSDs rise? Or is it just an idea/wish?
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#14
R-T-B
RictorhellSome of you are apparently away for the holidays, or just missed this article completely, somehow. But I will say "it" :)

It's just kind of shocking that there is no excuse of power outages, flooding, lightning strikes, parts shortages, WHATEVER!

They've just given up the pretense of excuses and are now just blatantly, intentionally colluding to raise prices "by any means possible".

"Progress"? "Evolution"? You be the judge.

*you're welcome, Merry Christmas :)
This is an independent market analysts groups expectation (they don't profit from the claims, only their accuracy), the manufacturers aren't the ones making this claim this time.
Posted on Reply
#15
moproblems99
RictorhellSome of you are apparently away for the holidays, or just missed this article completely, somehow. But I will say "it" :)

It's just kind of shocking that there is no excuse of power outages, flooding, lightning strikes, parts shortages, WHATEVER!

They've just given up the pretense of excuses and are now just blatantly, intentionally colluding to raise prices "by any means possible".

"Progress"? "Evolution"? You be the judge.

*you're welcome, Merry Christmas :)
This was three about 3 weeks ago...

www.techpowerup.com/275573/1-hour-power-outage-at-micron-manufacturing-plant-could-mean-increased-dram-prices-throughout-2021
Recent news as covered by DigiTimes place one of Micron's fabrication plants in Taiwan as being hit with a 1-hour long power outage, which can potentially affect 10% of the entire predictable DRAM supply for the coming months (a power outage affects every step of the manufacturing process).
Posted on Reply
#16
TumbleGeorge
R-T-Bthey don't profit from the claims, only their accuracy
LoL yes no profit! To provoke panic shopping in order to anticipate an imaginary rising prices. Such statements may change stock quotes. How do you know that members of this organization have not bought shares of companies related to the production of SSD or parts for them?
Posted on Reply
#17
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
TumbleGeorgeThere is no point to produce in 2021 small SSD with below 240/256GB size...hmm maybe even below 480/512GB is no point because more 4TB and 8TB is on market soon and biggest (16TB?) And price of ~500GB is very cheap and very accessible to all, even the poorest people and businesses. Yes for small office and for very budget PCs is was enough 30, 60, 120... But it's a lot of this has been produced in past there are large stocks that have not yet been sold.
This is because they are too expensive per gigabyte. 64GB SSDs for <10€ would sell like hotcakes.
Posted on Reply
#18
moproblems99
FrickThis is because they are too expensive per gigabyte. 64GB SSDs for <10€ would sell like hotcakes.
I would buy several just to experiment with raid.
Posted on Reply
#19
R-T-B
TumbleGeorgeLoL yes no profit! To provoke panic shopping in order to anticipate an imaginary rising prices. Such statements may change stock quotes. How do you know that members of this organization have not bought shares of companies related to the production of SSD or parts for them?
They aren't saying squat about stock prices. Raised unit price does not mean higher profits. The reasoning is also sound on this one.
Posted on Reply
#20
Vayra86
TumbleGeorgeJust greed. Too many greed!
Its human and won't ever go away. What we need is systems with checks and balances, more so than we do now. The economy has become a purpose and is no longer a means to an end.
Posted on Reply
#21
TumbleGeorge
R-T-BThey aren't saying squat about stock prices
It is enough people who have gained public notoriety to mention anything, regardless of its content, about a company and this to affect the price of its shares especially if this statement is reproduced in the form of articles on reputable websites.
Posted on Reply
#22
R-T-B
TumbleGeorgeIt is enough people who have gained public notoriety to mention anything, regardless of its content, about a company and this to affect the price of its shares especially if this statement is reproduced in the form of articles on reputable websites.
By that logic all market analysis is a conspiracy. I'm not buying that.
Posted on Reply
#23
moproblems99
Vayra86What we need is systems with checks and balances, more so than we do now.
I still like the method employed centuries ago. You know, our ancestors didn't have a lot of technology but they didn't really need it. When you did something scummy, they burned down your bazaar stand.
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#24
ityrant
wtf...luckly l already got enough ssd for pc......
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#25
watzupken
This sort of news are meant to induce fear so that people will rush out to get one or more drives. Anyway, how much is the NAND controller by itself anyway? If I assume its 20 USD, a 10% increase is 2 bucks. The title seems to imply that only the controller is going to see a price increase, so technically you should not see a steep increase in SSD prices.
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