Monday, October 14th 2019

Intel Scraps 10nm for Desktop, Brazen it Out with 14nm Skylake Till 2022?

In a shocking piece of news, Intel has reportedly scrapped plans to launch its 10 nm "Ice Lake" microarchitecture on the client desktop platform. The company will confine its 10 nm microarchitectures, "Ice Lake" and "Tiger Lake" to only the mobile platform, while the desktop platform will see derivatives of "Skylake" hold Intel's fort under the year 2022! Intel gambles that with HyperThreading enabled across the board and increased clock-speeds, it can restore competitiveness with AMD's 7 nm "Zen 2" Ryzen processors with its "Comet Lake" silicon that offers core-counts of up to 10.

"Comet Lake" will be succeeded in 2021 by the 14 nm "Rocket Lake" silicon, which somehow combines a Gen12 iGPU with "Skylake" derived CPU cores, and possibly increased core-counts and clock speeds over "Comet Lake." It's only 2022 that Intel will ship out a truly new microarchitecture on the desktop platform, with "Meteor Lake." This chip will be built on Intel's swanky 7 nm EUV silicon fabrication node, and possibly integrate CPU cores more advanced than even "Willow Cove," possibly "Golden Cove."
The HardwareLuxx article making these explosive revelations attributes the sudden change in Intel's plans to the company not being able to scale clock-speeds of "Ice Lake" high enough to establish product leadership. It feels "Skylake," which has IPC parity with "Zen 2," has enough scalability and clock-speed headroom to stay competitive with AMD at high clock-speeds. The company will augment next-generation uncore (revamped memory controllers, support for PCIe gen 4.0, Gen12 iGPU, etc.), with "Skylake" CPU cores, over time. Other areas where Intel could grow its mainstream desktop silicon is cache rebalancing similar to its HEDT chips, and implementing the Mesh Interconnect to maintain low latencies as core-counts enter two-figures.

Interestingly, 10 nm "Ice Lake" remains on Intel's enterprise roadmap, where the company appears more desperate not to cede market-share to AMD, especially as businesses around the world set their 5G plans rolling, springing a cycle of hardware updates in the data-center. 2020 could see the introduction of Xeon Scalable processors based on 10 nm "Ice Lake" microarchitecture with "Sunny Cove" CPU cores. In 2021, the company will introduce the "Sapphire Rapids" Xeon processor with even more cores and larger I/O connectivity, spearheaded with PCI-Express gen 5.0.

Update Oct 15th: Intel has released a statement, denying these claims, read more here. Source: HardwareLuxx.de
Add your own comment

148 Comments on Intel Scraps 10nm for Desktop, Brazen it Out with 14nm Skylake Till 2022?

#51
simdeb123
sepheronx
I don't see how AM4 is almost dead. What makes it almost dead?
Well AM5 and DDR5 will both most likely be releasing 2021, so 2020 which is quite close frankly will be the last year for AM4 and ryzen 4000 series
Posted on Reply
#52
sepheronx
simdeb123
Well AM5 and DDR5 will both most likely be releasing 2021, so 2020 which is quite close frankly will be the last year for AM4 and ryzen 4000 series
Unless you have a source, you are just guessing. AM5..... Now thats funny. Let us wait for AM4 to release before we guess more, ok?
Posted on Reply
#53
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
Just rebrand 10nm+n to 7nm. She'll be fine.
Posted on Reply
#54
lynx29
HD64G
Zen3 will be for AM4 for sure. And will have both IPC and clock improvements. Intel is already behind in IPC, efficiency and pricing and just a bit ahead in gaming and will get in a tougher position soon with 3950X and TR4 launching imminently. So, you were saying?
yep rumors are 10% bump IPC since it will be 7nm EUV this time. prob summer 2020 release for ryzen 4700x, which is what i am going to buy.
Posted on Reply
#55
Metroid
I'm very happy I went with ryzen 5 3600 and you will be too for the same reason why this article was written.
Posted on Reply
#56
cucker tarlson
HD64G
Zen3 will be for AM4 for sure. And will have both IPC and clock improvements. Intel is already behind in IPC, efficiency and pricing and just a bit ahead in gaming and will get in a tougher position soon with 3950X and TR4 launching imminently. So, you were saying?
ah the mythical ipc and the endless argument.who cares about ipc.
and from what I can see in the tpu review 9600k is not only faster than 3900x in games but in a whole bunch of other typically single thread heavy office tasks.other ones use multi threading at least to some extent so it's a pointless comparison.

that said,I can see ryzen 4000 deliver really good performance.with 3000 they made good improvements so hopefully they'll continue on the right track.
Posted on Reply
#57
Tomorrow
Relax. Ryzen 4000 will be AM4 compatible. I would rather worry about chipset compatibility. Ryzen 4000 on a B350 board? Maybe. A320 - problably not.
AM5/DDR5 will be 2021 at the earliest.

When it comes to Zen 3 then current leaks point to unified 32MB L3 for one chiplet (currently each CCD within a chiplet has it's own 16MB cache) and 3-way SMT on desktop and 4-way in servers. Supposedly also 200Mhz clock bump and 8-10% IPC uplift. So more meaningful upgrade than Zen+ was to Zen but not as major as Zen 2 was to Zen+.

Besides considering the massive AM4 install base i would not rule out the possibility of cross socket compatible Ryzen 5000 series that has both DDR4 and DDR5 capable memory controller built in.
Posted on Reply
#58
TheGuruStud
Hardware Geek
From the article: "2020 could see the introduction of Xeon Scalable processors based on 10 nm "Ice Lake" microarchitecture with "Sunny Cove" CPU cores."
Aka glue quad cores together from mobile and hope they can give them away for free to hold the mass exodus to epyc.

But they will be in very limited supply, so game over man.
Posted on Reply
#61
neatfeatguy
Intel constantly changes up sockets - folks don't really complain and accept it.

AMD is on the verge of changing sockets after 2020 and folks are freaking the F out! :confused:
Posted on Reply
#62
kumbandit
Raendor
Haha, oh wow. And here I was hoping to hold out a little and get 10nm cpu from intel to upgrade for the new console gen from my 6700k. I don’t want to buy into am4 as it’s almost dead too, so it’s very curious to see how hardware releases will play out next year alongside new ps/xbox release.
Yeah you're solid with 6700K until new AM socket and DDR5 come out for the masses, and then you should make the jump. Also, what????????? Zen 3 will not be an improvement over Zen 2? Maybe if you listen to intel fanboys, but any market analyst will tell you we're expecting some 30% increase in performance, and better yet, improvement in the efficiency and latency, stop believing what intel wants you to believe, that GHz and 300+ FPS in 1080p is all that matters, cuz it's ridiculous... Ryzen is already ridiculously powerful for anything, game devs need to get their ass in gear and make games that can utilize the power...
Food for thought:
Posted on Reply
#63
theoneandonlymrk
Called this years ago, as expected they're jumping straight to 7nm so all those schedule table's with 10,,nm eternally just around the corner were hogwash, total balls.
2022 , wow not great news so were getting two more years of optimised skylake.
Posted on Reply
#64
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
cucker tarlson
ah the mythical ipc and the endless argument.who cares about ipc.
and from what I can see in the tpu review 9600k is not only faster than 3900x in games but in a whole bunch of other typically single thread heavy office tasks.other ones use multi threading at least to some extent so it's a pointless comparison.

that said,I can see ryzen 4000 deliver really good performance.with 3000 they made good improvements so hopefully they'll continue on the right track.
A higherIPC is the reason for your second sentence. Am I missing your point maybe?
Posted on Reply
#65
Super XP
AMD needs to capitalize on this news as much as possible.
I expect triple digit % gains in CPU market share.
Posted on Reply
#66
phanbuey
Super XP
AMD needs to capitalize on this news as much as possible.
I expect triple digit % gains in CPU market share.
The question is... Will Jim Keller and Meteor Lake deliver? Or will they have density/process issues again?

It will get really spicy if they push ML to 2023.
Posted on Reply
#67
Super XP
Raendor
Haha, oh wow. And here I was hoping to hold out a little and get 10nm cpu from intel to upgrade for the new console gen from my 6700k. I don’t want to buy into am4 as it’s almost dead too, so it’s very curious to see how hardware releases will play out next year alongside new ps/xbox release.
Here is AMD's QUOTE:
With the launch of the AM4 platform in 2016, we at AMD made a commitment to maintain and support socket AM4 through 2020.
AMD - May 26, 2019


That said, ZEN 3 will be on Socket AM4. ZEN 4 may see Socket AM4+. But 99% of the user base that builds there own PCs usually always upgrade there CPUs and Motherboards together. To get to my point, if AMD releases a new socket, that doesn't make AM4 obsolete. Never did in the past and never will in the future, LOL


phanbuey
The question is... Will Jim Keller and Meteor Lake deliver? Or will they have density/process issues again?

It will get really spicy if they push ML to 2023.
I think Jim Keller will deliver but it will take 4 - 5 years from when he was hired. The question is when and like you said, density/process issues may also be a limiting factor overall.
AMD has the perfect opportunity to continue to deliver and increase its market share while Intel is struggling.
Posted on Reply
#68
DeathtoGnomes
Frick
Just rebrand 10nm+n to 7nm. She'll be fine.
you forgot the "@INTEL" in that. ;)

neatfeatguy
Intel constantly changes up sockets - folks don't really complain and accept it.

AMD is on the verge of changing sockets after 2020 and folks are freaking the F out! :confused:
IF, and thats a big IF, its likely to be minor change to AM4+ until 2022-23.
Posted on Reply
#69
ShurikN
I doubt there will be major improvements between Zen2 and Zen3 aside from 7nm EUV... maybe some small tweaking like in the Zen>Zen+ transition.
So why would AMD release a new socket for just one year when DDR5 (and therefore AM5) is most likely slated for 2021.
It makes absolutely no sense... They'll just release X670 and a new B board on AM4 and those'll be the last AM4 parts.
I mean, they could, if they can make it compatible with Zen4 and DDR5 and Zen 3(DDR4). But what are the likes of that.
Posted on Reply
#70
phanbuey
ShurikN
I doubt there will be major improvements between Zen2 and Zen3 aside from 7nm EUV... maybe some small tweaking like in the Zen>Zen+ transition.
So why would AMD release a new socket for just one year when DDR5 (and therefore AM5) is most likely slated for 2021.
It makes absolutely no sense... They'll just release X670 and a new B board on AM4 and those'll be the last AM4 parts.
I mean, they could, if they can make it compatible with Zen4 and DDR5 and Zen 3(DDR4). But what are the likes of that.
If they get a tiny IPC lift (7-8%) but can boost the clockspeeds then they will be on top by a decent margin. If they can lower latency even more then it will be tough for intel to keep up.
Posted on Reply
#71
theoneandonlymrk
cucker tarlson
ah the mythical ipc and the endless argument.who cares about ipc.
and from what I can see in the tpu review 9600k is not only faster than 3900x in games but in a whole bunch of other typically single thread heavy office tasks.other ones use multi threading at least to some extent so it's a pointless comparison.

that said,I can see ryzen 4000 deliver really good performance.with 3000 they made good improvements so hopefully they'll continue on the right track.
Everyone And you cared about IPC back in the day and all of us still do ?
ShurikN
I doubt there will be major improvements between Zen2 and Zen3 aside from 7nm EUV... maybe some small tweaking like in the Zen>Zen+ transition.
So why would AMD release a new socket for just one year when DDR5 (and therefore AM5) is most likely slated for 2021.
It makes absolutely no sense... They'll just release X670 and a new B board on AM4 and those'll be the last AM4 parts.
I mean, they could, if they can make it compatible with Zen4 and DDR5 and Zen 3(DDR4). But what are the likes of that.
They appear to have joined the Ccx's into a mega ccx of 8 ,I think there will be more than a few changes in their for performance and I think smt4 is at least in dark silicon on some possibly working on some.
They're both working on on die cach but Intel can not change their designs as easily as their competition, not just Amd here.
Posted on Reply
#73
Hifihedgehog
Zareek
Wow... I hope AMD doesn't take this as a signal they can let off the gas now.
Hardly. They may make a superior product for now (I have my eyes set on that tasty 3950X!), but AMD has a mountain of mind share and market share that you cannot believe they have to contend with so you won't see them slowing anytime soon. They are still very much David against Goliath and they only make a tenth of Intel's mega-revenue. We still see potentially hundreds of thousands of loyalists in IT departments across all kinds of industries (school districts, financial institutions, airlines, department stores, factories, shipping services, etc.) dotting the globe who are sticking to Intel because of tradition (It's in our blood and our rich history and it's who we are.), track record (It's battle tested in the field so why change brands now and risk more help desk calls?), and brand image and recognition (Who's AMD? Oh, are they the guys with the hot, slow processors?). You can also thank the clueless Dell, HP, and Lenovo representatives who insist on Intel when people ask for AMD for continue these trains of thought. We may get it, but most people are generally slow to change, absorbing and adapting to it. They have a ways to go--likely three to five years before they absorb a half of the market if they keep at their current clip--before they can safely let off the gas. Until then, they have to fight Intel's marketing and their own stigma.
Posted on Reply
#75
theoneandonlymrk
Super XP
Here is AMD's QUOTE:


That said, ZEN 3 will be on Socket AM4. ZEN 4 may see Socket AM4+. But 99% of the user base that builds there own PCs usually always upgrade there CPUs and Motherboards together. To get to my point, if AMD releases a new socket, that doesn't make AM4 obsolete. Never did in the past and never will in the future, LOL



I think Jim Keller will deliver but it will take 4 - 5 years from when he was hired. The question is when and like you said, density/process issues may also be a limiting factor overall.
AMD has the perfect opportunity to continue to deliver and increase its market share while Intel is struggling.
It's probably safe to say he will be instrumental in the 7,nm core design from intel , there are rumours of Intel making their next design BIG with far more resources but we'll see, I am eager to see the PC of that generation for deffo.
For both Intel and AMD a big L4/5 cache has to be on the cards and that plus extra internal cache should accelerate IPc gains a bit.
Posted on Reply
Add your own comment