Monday, October 14th 2019

Intel Scraps 10nm for Desktop, Brazen it Out with 14nm Skylake Till 2022?

In a shocking piece of news, Intel has reportedly scrapped plans to launch its 10 nm "Ice Lake" microarchitecture on the client desktop platform. The company will confine its 10 nm microarchitectures, "Ice Lake" and "Tiger Lake" to only the mobile platform, while the desktop platform will see derivatives of "Skylake" hold Intel's fort under the year 2022! Intel gambles that with HyperThreading enabled across the board and increased clock-speeds, it can restore competitiveness with AMD's 7 nm "Zen 2" Ryzen processors with its "Comet Lake" silicon that offers core-counts of up to 10.

"Comet Lake" will be succeeded in 2021 by the 14 nm "Rocket Lake" silicon, which somehow combines a Gen12 iGPU with "Skylake" derived CPU cores, and possibly increased core-counts and clock speeds over "Comet Lake." It's only 2022 that Intel will ship out a truly new microarchitecture on the desktop platform, with "Meteor Lake." This chip will be built on Intel's swanky 7 nm EUV silicon fabrication node, and possibly integrate CPU cores more advanced than even "Willow Cove," possibly "Golden Cove."
The HardwareLuxx article making these explosive revelations attributes the sudden change in Intel's plans to the company not being able to scale clock-speeds of "Ice Lake" high enough to establish product leadership. It feels "Skylake," which has IPC parity with "Zen 2," has enough scalability and clock-speed headroom to stay competitive with AMD at high clock-speeds. The company will augment next-generation uncore (revamped memory controllers, support for PCIe gen 4.0, Gen12 iGPU, etc.), with "Skylake" CPU cores, over time. Other areas where Intel could grow its mainstream desktop silicon is cache rebalancing similar to its HEDT chips, and implementing the Mesh Interconnect to maintain low latencies as core-counts enter two-figures.

Interestingly, 10 nm "Ice Lake" remains on Intel's enterprise roadmap, where the company appears more desperate not to cede market-share to AMD, especially as businesses around the world set their 5G plans rolling, springing a cycle of hardware updates in the data-center. 2020 could see the introduction of Xeon Scalable processors based on 10 nm "Ice Lake" microarchitecture with "Sunny Cove" CPU cores. In 2021, the company will introduce the "Sapphire Rapids" Xeon processor with even more cores and larger I/O connectivity, spearheaded with PCI-Express gen 5.0.

Update Oct 15th: Intel has released a statement, denying these claims, read more here. Source: HardwareLuxx.de
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148 Comments on Intel Scraps 10nm for Desktop, Brazen it Out with 14nm Skylake Till 2022?

#101
NicklasAPJ
Muser99
But is this the big issue, it is broken! There still no full Intel hardware fix for Spectre/Meltdown? The architecture is still vulnerable? And enabling multi-threading again makes this worse?
like any normal person Care about that...
Posted on Reply
#102
Super XP
ShrimpBrime
AMD lacks frequency IMO. I miss the 5ghz club.....
ZEN3 will see a 200MHz + boost in CPU Frequency.

1d10t
This statement are right on the heels.For long time, Intel known to be good at building brand awareness, it's hard to get over with it.Their money is well spend toward marketing and "rebate". It's not a secret that OEM and channel partner are giving rebates and offering rewards if you engaging with particular product.
Time will tell, let's see if Fiat Multipla clouded with billions of dollar can run another year :D
Offering rewards is what got Intel is legal trouble which they were forced to pay AMD Billions in damages.
Incentives is OK to a certain extent, but rewards for knocking out the competition is illegal.

Muser99
But is this the big issue, it is broken! There still no full Intel hardware fix for Spectre/Meltdown? The architecture is still vulnerable? And enabling multi-threading again makes this worse?
No fix will mitigate Intel's CPU malware and security issues. It's was a deliberate design technique to squeeze out more performance and years later got caught.
Intel needs a new design built from the ground up. That's most likely why they hired Jim Keller. I can see something new by 2023 to 2025.
Posted on Reply
#103
notb
Vayra86
You mean laptop, singular not plural? :p
"Mobile segment" is singular... whatever the importance of that is.
If AMD doubles they'll have 100% growth in share... right?
Yes. But they won't. They can't make that many 7nm CPUs.

That's the fundamental background of this Intel-AMD battle.
AMD can make very advanced designs that depend on very limited technology - because they're fine selling 10% of what Intel does.
Intel has to design CPUs that they can make in quantities their partners demand.
That's why the existing 10nm supply goes to fairly low-volume products: mobile multimedia SoCs and Nervana.

Intel could redesign Skylake for TSMC's 7nm, but what's the point? I doubt it'd even saturate demand coming from Dell alone.
Super XP
No fix will mitigate Intel's CPU malware and security issues. It's was a deliberate design technique to squeeze out more performance and years later got caught.
Intel needs a new design built from the ground up. That's most likely why they hired Jim Keller. I can see something new by 2023 to 2025.
Speculative execution was invented in the 80's and utilized by almost all CPU makers - including AMD that you worship so much.

And yes: it was expected that this technique will make some type of attack possible, but no one managed to exploit it until 2016.
It happened, se we had to sacrifice some of the gains. That's all. Stop whining. :)
Posted on Reply
#104
Super XP
notb
"Mobile segment" is singular... whatever the importance of that is.

Yes. But they won't. They can't make that many 7nm CPUs.

That's the fundamental background of this Intel-AMD battle.
AMD can make very advanced designs that depend on very limited technology - because they're fine selling 10% of what Intel does.
Intel has to design CPUs that they can make in quantities their partners demand.
That's why the existing 10nm supply goes to fairly low-volume products: mobile multimedia SoCs and Nervana.

Intel could redesign Skylake for TSMC's 7nm, but what's the point? I doubt it'd even saturate demand coming from Dell alone.

Speculative execution was invented in the 80's and utilized by almost all CPU makers - including AMD that you worship so much.

And yes: it was expected that this technique will make some type of attack possible, but no one managed to exploit it until 2016.
It happened, se we had to sacrifice some of the gains. That's all. Stop whining. :)
You must be new around here, seeing how you think I umm warship AMD so much. Interesting to even suggest such a thing.
Nobody is whining but those that prefer Intel CPU's and Intel themselves.
Posted on Reply
#105
notb
Super XP
You must be new around here, seeing how you think I umm warship AMD so much. Interesting to even suggest such a thing.
Lets say you don't. Or whatever. I don't care.

You like to talk about speculative execution. Why not spend an evening learning what it is?
Posted on Reply
#106
yeeeeman
This is just a PR hit from hardwareluxx and unfortunately all respectable media outlets copy pasted it since it generates traffic. Niiiice
Posted on Reply
#107
ShrimpBrime
Super XP
ZEN3 will see a 200MHz + boost in CPU Frequency.


Offering rewards is what got Intel is legal trouble which they were forced to pay AMD Billions in damages.
Incentives is OK to a certain extent, but rewards for knocking out the competition is illegal.


No fix will mitigate Intel's CPU malware and security issues. It's was a deliberate design technique to squeeze out more performance and years later got caught.
Intel needs a new design built from the ground up. That's most likely why they hired Jim Keller. I can see something new by 2023 to 2025.
will see 200mhz increase?
That would be nice and yield the 10% gain without changing anything except frequency.....
Posted on Reply
#108
INSTG8R
My Custom Title
Needs more +...
Posted on Reply
#109
R-T-B
TheLostSwede
No, see the source link.


Sorry, it was a bit of a joke, considering all the issues Intel has had. It's not impossible that they'll fix all the known issues by the time this thing comes out.
Hardware fixes for meltdown have been in place since coffee lake. Spectre is another matter, on both sides.
Posted on Reply
#110
notb
R-T-B
Hardware fixes for meltdown have been in place since coffee lake. Spectre is another matter, on both sides.
As visible here:
https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=article&item=3900x-9900k-mitigations&num=1
9900K means Meltdown is taken care of in hardware, so it's Spectre vs Spectre.

Phoronix also did a few comparisons of earlier CPUs (also Xeon vs EPYC), where Intel side has both Spectre and Meltdown mitigations (AMD just Spectre).
Posted on Reply
#111
hat
Enthusiast
It's looking grim at Intel. Scrapping the 10nm node (at least on desktop) and jumping to 7nm lends credence to a few inferences that are not so good for Intel. Their 10nm node is still crap, and if they can't make desktop parts with it, that means either they can only crank out low power, low performance (mobile) parts with it, and/or the yields are terrible. The latter, at least, is true if they manage to make higher performing parts for the server market, but not the desktop market. Laptops might be a bigger market then desktops, but plenty of desktops are still being sold, yeah? It would be a mistake to shrug off the desktop market like it's nothing. Now, I realize I'm on an enthusiast forum of sorts, but I can't be the only one in the world who prefers desktops to laptops, or worse, tablets and such.

Of course, we know next to nothing about Intel's 7nm node at this time... who's to say they won't have the same problems with their 7nm node?
Posted on Reply
#112
jgraham11
Muser99
But is this the big issue, it is broken! There still no full Intel hardware fix for Spectre/Meltdown? The architecture is still vulnerable? And enabling multi-threading again makes this worse?
Yeah most of the big server companies have come out and said they are disabling Hyper-Threading on all their Intel servers, Google, Microsoft, Amazon... its the same problem on their desktop CPUs...

Don't forget the other ones other than spectre and meltdown: Foreshadow, ZombieLoad, Fallout, RidL

Also remember that most of these issues were known when they released their 7th and 8th Gen Processors... So they released a knowingly broken product.
Posted on Reply
#113
Chrispy_
btarunr
In a shocking piece of news
I love some grade-A dry sarcasm!

btarunr
Update Oct 15th - Intel has released a statement, denying these claims
I am shocked.
/deadpan
Posted on Reply
#114
Jorge Nascimento
phanbuey
I think everyone saw this coming. AMD Stock, here I come. :D
I bought 2000 shares of AMD when the price was 1.98 a piece back when they anounced Polaris, when the stock reached a price of 27 dollars i sold them. EZ money, the only tech company that raised 400% in the last decade.

Raendor
Haha, oh wow. And here I was hoping to hold out a little and get 10nm cpu from intel to upgrade for the new console gen from my 6700k. I don’t want to buy into am4 as it’s almost dead too, so it’s very curious to see how hardware releases will play out next year alongside new ps/xbox release.
Your 6700k is already dead since ryzen came out, keep waiting on the side walk while everyone else moves along and evolves past the One brand cpu market.

Raendor
well, it’s highly unlikely zen 3 will release on am4, and even so, it’s not expected to be any significant uplift over zen2. So amd will at best only match intel in gaming.
AMD surpased Intel in everything that gives billions, the server market, and is almost at the same lvl of Intel at gaming with the funny fact of having lower clocks that almost match a vulcano Shintel at 5.0 with a extra chiller on the side.

get your facts straight pls!!
Posted on Reply
#115
notb
hat
It's looking grim at Intel.
It really doesn't. They're fine in mobile and servers with new arch and 10nm arriving soon.
Mainstream desktops (4-6 cores) can remain on 14nm.

High-end desktop is a weird market. With current margins it isn't very attractive anymore and Intel would love to dump it. If AMD is fine with those margins - let them have it.
But that would only work in an ideal world where people do conscious decisions based on full information. And the world it's not like that.

In reality, high-end desktop is doing most of the PR. These CPUs are covered in reviews and that's what people read and talk about.
Also, everyone knows a PC geek and he will likely have a powerful desktop - and that's the person we turn to for PC advice.

So Intel will try to stay relevant in this game by all means possible - most likely pushing HEDT down to make it more popular. And lowering prices.
Because $1 lost on desktops may mean $3 earned somewhere else.
Their 10nm node is still crap, and if they can't make desktop parts with it, that means either they can only crank out low power, low performance (mobile) parts with it, and/or the yields are terrible.
Even if their 10nm can't do high frequencies, it's not a big deal for their product profile. Mobile and servers will work fine.
It was a bit different with AMD and Zen/Zen+. AMD focuses on gamers. They were very dependent on TSMC providing chips with higher clocks.
Laptops might be a bigger market then desktops, but plenty of desktops are still being sold, yeah? It would be a mistake to shrug off the desktop market like it's nothing.
But most desktops are OEM home/business machines. Intel can cover that with 14nm.
You're really thinking about high-end gaming desktops (the stuff forums like this one focus on). And that market is relatively small for Intel.
Of course, we know next to nothing about Intel's 7nm node at this time... who's to say they won't have the same problems with their 7nm node?
Because they started very early with 10nm. They were alone and they had some ideas that didn't work well. But it's a big investment, so they kept working on it...
With Intel there's always the issue of scale. They don't need a 10nm node that just works in some products. They need a 10nm node that will work for 400 mln - very diversified - chips yearly.
In the meantime TSMC and Samsung caught up and went straight past.

Intel's 7nm is expected to be launched with competing 5nm for Samsung and TSMC. No rushing this time. Let's hope it works. :)
Jorge Nascimento
I bought 2000 shares of AMD when the price was 1.98 a piece back when they anounced Polaris, when the stock reached a price of 27 dollars i sold them. EZ money, the only tech company that raised 400% in the last decade.
I'm pretty sure there are other tech companies in the world that moved from dog shit level to actually making some money.
The fact that a huge, mainstream company like AMD moved from $2 in 2015 to $30 in 2019 is not something to be proud of.
Posted on Reply
#116
Hardware Geek
TheGuruStud
Aka glue quad cores together from mobile and hope they can give them away for free to hold the mass exodus to epyc.

But they will be in very limited supply, so game over man.
Agreed. Their 10nm has been a disaster. I suspect ASML has orders from Intel for their 7nm. I do love the competition though, we are finally seeing improvement after years of stagnation! I'm not an Intel or an AMD fanboy. I buy what is best for my needs and budget at the time, but I'm pretty sure my next upgrade will be to threadripper.
Posted on Reply
#117
John Naylor
Why give a hoot about die size, core count or anything else that doesn't necessarily affect application performance ? All that is relevant is performance in the apps that you wanna run, and core counts, and die size are clearly not determining what serves the needs of 99.5% of PC users. If the manufacturers is focusing it's marketing on this stuff, they clearly do not want to talk about application performance.
Posted on Reply
#118
Chrispy_
John Naylor
Why give a hoot about die size, core count or anything else that doesn't necessarily affect application performance ? All that is relevant is performance in the apps that you wanna run, and core counts, and die size are clearly not determining what serves the needs of 99.5% of PC users. If the manufacturers is focusing it's marketing on this stuff, they clearly do not want to talk about application performance.
I also care about power consumption, temperatures, noise levels, performance/$, exploit vulnerabilities, regular driver/firmware/utility updates, and platform longevity.

Price and core counts sure are important, but they are far from everything that matters.
Posted on Reply
#119
Super XP
ShrimpBrime
will see 200mhz increase?
That would be nice and yield the 10% gain without changing anything except frequency.....
Agreed.
Multiple sources state that ZEN 3 could see IPC gains of over 8% and up to 200 MHz faster clock speeds over ZEN2.
Looking forward to ZEN3, as it stands that may be my next upgrade. At the moment, my ZEN is doing just fine in and out of PC Gaming.... :)
Posted on Reply
#120
ShrimpBrime
Super XP
Agreed.
Multiple sources state that ZEN 3 could see IPC gains of over 8% and up to 200 MHz faster clock speeds over ZEN2.
Looking forward to ZEN3, as it stands that may be my next upgrade. At the moment, my ZEN is doing just fine in and out of PC Gaming.... :)
Im happy with my Zen+ 100%!!
Never do I use all 16 threads.
Never does it get hot unless I bench on it or F@H ect.

And lately, been running a low pwer state which enables me to passively cool the processor.
Still games even at 3.0ghz 0.9v.
Still maintains max settings CODBO IV and around 80 fps at 1080p.

Good stuff.
Posted on Reply
#121
notb
Chrispy_
I also care about power consumption, temperatures, noise levels, performance/$, exploit vulnerabilities, regular driver/firmware/utility updates, and platform longevity.
Things you've mentioned here are important for clients.

But die size? Core count? IPC?
It's really sad that people care about such things. It shows that the group that likes to mock marketing is just as susceptible as everyone else.
ShrimpBrime
Im happy with my Zen+ 100%!!
Never do I use all 16 threads.
Why would you be 100% happy if you can't use all threads? :o
Posted on Reply
#122
ShrimpBrime
notb
Things you've mentioned here are important for clients.

But die size? Core count? IPC?
It's really sad that people care about such things. It shows that the group that likes to mock marketing is just as susceptible as everyone else.

Why would you be 100% happy if you can't use all threads? :eek:
Because its a vast improvement over previous socket AMD processors. It was/is fairly priced.
It more than covers my needs.
Very good effeceincy in lower power states.
And thats all I can really ask for in an AMD product.

Yep 100% satisfied.
Posted on Reply
#123
Super XP
ShrimpBrime
Im happy with my Zen+ 100%!!
Never do I use all 16 threads.
Never does it get hot unless I bench on it or F@H ect.

And lately, been running a low pwer state which enables me to passively cool the processor.
Still games even at 3.0ghz 0.9v.
Still maintains max settings CODBO IV and around 80 fps at 1080p.

Good stuff.
That's Great,
And my 1700x running stock speed is more than enough for my needs.
Runs cool and quiet.

DeathtoGnomes
i'm more in favor of latency being a priority.
.
Ryzen's would benefit a lot more if they somehow prioritized latency.
Agreed.
Posted on Reply
#124
svan71
"Meteor Lake." This chip will be built on Intel's swanky 7 nm EUV silicon fabrication node", why exactly should we believe this statement ?
Posted on Reply
#125
notb
svan71
"Meteor Lake." This chip will be built on Intel's swanky 7 nm EUV silicon fabrication node", why exactly should we believe this statement ?
Honestly, nothing is sure about the naming or (sadly) date.
But we know for sure that Intel is buying a lot of 7nm EUV equipment from ASML. So something will be launched. :)
ShrimpBrime
Because its a vast improvement over previous socket AMD processors. It was/is fairly priced.
That's not a huge achievement when you think that Ryzen was the first good AMD design since 2007's K10.
And 6 years since the awful Bulldozer.

If you compare Intel CPUs from 2017-2018 and 2011 (not to mention 2007), the architecture is similar, but the performance and efficiency are in 2 different worlds as well.
It more than covers my needs.
Very good effeceincy in lower power states.
And thats all I can really ask for in an AMD product.
No one says it's a bad CPU. But you paid for 8C/16T and you said yourself you never used 16 threads (and you said it like if it was good...?)
Would you be so happy about 2700X benchmark results (Cinebench etc) if they were 10-20% lower? :)

So the question I asked was: wasn't this a suboptimal choice? Maybe 2600X would be better for you?
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